SANF 24 no 32 by Neto Nengomasha, SARDC
Most parts of southern Africa are likely to receive normal to above-normal rainfall in the 2024/25 agricultural season, a relief following last season’s drought.
The forecast was made by the 29th Southern Africa Climate Outlook Forum (SARCOF-29), which is made up of regional weather and climate experts, who met from 26-28 August in Harare, Zimbabwe.
According to SARCOF 29, the bulk of southern Africa is likely to receive good rainfall termed “normal to above-normal” for most of the period October to December (OND) 2024.
Only the north-western part of the Democratic Republic of Congo is expected to receive high rainfall (above-normal) during the first half of the 2024/25 agricultural season.
The remainder of the region, including the island states of Comoros and Seychelles, will likely receive less rainfall commonly referred to as “normal to below normal rainfall” in the first half of the season.
In the second half of the season covering the period January to March (JFM) 2025, most of the region is expected to have normal to above normal rainfall.
The areas that include the south-western fringes of South Africa, south-eastern and western most of DRC, north-western Angola, Tanzania, northern Zambia, northern Malawi, northern Mozambique and central western tip of Madagascar, Comoros and Seychelles are predicted to receive normal to below-normal rains during this period.
However, northern Madagascar is likely to receive above normal rainfall during this period of the 2024/25 rainfall season.
In developing this forecast, the climate scientists took into account oceanic and atmospheric factors that influence the climate over the southern Africa.
These include the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), which is currently in neutral phase. El Niño is a naturally occurring climate cycle that develops as the warm waters of the tropical Pacific Ocean spread eastwards in concert with shifting patterns of atmospheric pressure, eventually affecting global climate.
On the other hand, La Niña is defined by cooler than average sea surface temperatures in the central-eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean and related atmospheric changes.
During most El Niño episodes, drought conditions usually prevail over the bulk of southern Africa while La Niña conditions often result in wet conditions with a high risk of floods occurring in the region.
As the ENSO is projected to reach a weak La Niña phase during the forecast period, the risk of floods cannot be ruled out, especially in the low-lying areas hence institutions responsible for disaster risk reduction should be on high alert.
The prospect of good rainfall in the 2024/25 is a welcome development for the region’s food and nutrition security as southern Africa is still grappling with the impact of the El Nino-induced drought and the flooding that occurred in the 2023/24 season.
Improved rainfall availability will also be a boon for power production for hydro-power stations in the region as some in countries such as Zambia and Zimbabwe have been forced to cut down on production due to low water levels as a result of last season’s drought.
This has led to the introduction of prolonged hours of load shedding, affecting industrial production and the socio-economic lives of citizens whose source of income is dependent on availability of electricity, such as chicken farmers and small-scale businesses, in packaging and steel fabrication.
In response to the impacts of the drought, the Southern African Development Community (SADC) launched a US$5.5 billion humanitarian appeal to assist more than 61 million people affected by these extreme events.
The regional appeal was launched during an Extraordinary Summit of SADC Heads of State and Government which was held virtually on 20 May this year to discuss the humanitarian situation and measures to mitigate the impact of the El Niño-induced drought and floods.
At least four SADC countries – Lesotho, Malawi, Zambia and Zimbabwe – declared the drought situation a state of national disaster.
In February this year, President Hakainde Hichilema of Zambia said a severe drought had affected nearly 10 million people in 84 of the 116 districts of the country.
Malawian President Lazarus Chakwera appealed for humanitarian assistance amounting to US$200 million for people in 23 of the country’s 28 districts affected by drought.
In April, Zimbabwe’s President Emmerson Mnangagwa announced that nearly three million people in the country were estimated to be food-insecure due to drought, and appealed for US$2 billion for immediate response to address the situation.
Lesotho declared a state of national disaster in July, with Prime Minister Samuel Matekane attributing the low agricultural yields to the drought that affected the country.
According to the 2024 SADC Regional Humanitarian Appeal, crop production generally decreased this year when compared to a five-year average.
For instance, Malawi’s official 2nd round crop estimates indicate a 2023/24 maize production of 2.93 million metric tons (mt), 23 percent below the five-year average.
Preliminary estimates from Namibia’s Ministry of Agriculture, Water and Land Reform indicate that cereal production this season is expected to be 47 percent below the five-year average.
South Africa was also affected by the drought conditions, and their updated crop production estimates released in April includes a revised maize production estimate of 13.97 mt, 10.2 percent down from the five-year average, primarily as a result of the dry conditions in February and March.
In Zambia, 982,765 hectares of maize, 43 percent of the planted area, was destroyed by the drought.
Zimbabwe’s crop production figures estimate a cereal harvest of 744,271 mt, a drop of 71 percent from the previous season.
Many of the areas that have suffered reduced crop production due to the drought include typical surplus-producing areas that normally export grain to other SADC Member States.
However, the United Republic of Tanzania has a surplus of 4 million tonnes of maize grains for possible trade with Member States facing deficits. sardc.net
