by Phyllis Johnson and Virginia Kapembeza Muwanigwa This is the first in a series of four articles on the current state of the Angolan peace process.
Amid strong fears of an impending coup d’etat, the Angolan President, Jose Eduardo dos Santos, pulled his country back from the slide into military and economic chaos by sacking the prime minister and government, and the governor of the central bank.
The new prime minister, Fernando Franca van Dunem is a widely respected technocrat who was credited with the economic policies that established a stable, credible administration in the run-up to elections in September 1992.
Van Dunem was prime minister for just one year at that time, before becoming president of the new national assembly after the elections. He was replaced as prime minister by Marcolino Moco, who had served briefly as secretary-general of the ruling party, the Popular Movement for the Liberation of Angola (MPLA).
The apparent expectation at that time was that Moco, a southerner, could attract southern support away from the Union for the Total Independence of Angola (Unita) and its leader, Jonas Savimbi. Instead, he proved an ineffectual leader increasingly ambitious, encouraged by political elements in Portugal, the former colonial power.
In recent months, a Portuguese-funded book appeared in circulation — a glossy, full-colour, picture book depicting Moco as a statesman in the company of a “who’s who” of world leaders. Moco hirnself was giving visitors free copies of the book, which described him as the leader most likely to achieve consensus and which contained only one or two photographs of his president.
President dos Santos has contributed to the uncertainty by not appearing in public, and not calling a meeting of his party hierarchy in over one year. When he finally summoned party leaders to a meeting a few weeks ago, it was at his Futungo de Belas residence-cum-office on the outskirts of Luanda.
Diplomatic sources confirm that he is not in good health, and that his recent absence from the country at a clinic in France was necessitated by an operation for prostate cancer, which is now in remission.
In his statement announcing the replacement of the prime minister on 3 June, President dos Santos said the country was on the verge of collapse, with a situation of extreme poverty and social breakdown in which people were becoming desperate.
The rate of inflation has climbed to an almost unbelievable rate of 4,000 per cent, and the peace process is dragging on with little progress in sight. “It is time that a lid is put on inflation and steps are taken to control the economy so that the country’s wealth can benefit the people and not just a few,” one Angolan economist told an international news agency, Reuters.
Savimbi has refused to comply with many points of the 1994 Lusaka agreement, including the placing of Unita forces in the agreed confinement areas and ensuring that the equipment and personnel sent are genuine. Unita is accused of handing in old weapons and sending children into assembly points while retaining armed and trained soldiers.
The cantonment of Unita forces has ground to avirtual halt, with 35,000 men and boys registered in II UN quartering areas in early June, at least half of whom are not soldiers and only two-thirds arrived with any type of small weaponry, according to UN and local military officials.
The Chief of Staff of the Angolan Armed Forces (FAA), General Joao de Matos, told Guardian reporter Victoria Britain that no heavy weapons have been handed in, the munitions registered to date are derisory and new arms supplies are regularly flown in by Unita from Zaire.
A UN official quoted in the same report, said, “Unita has not even begun a serious effort towards disarming and demobilising, 18 months after the Lusaka accords, and there is no sign of any change in their attitudes.” This viewpoint is confirmed by Angolans and aid workers in the capital.
The Zimbabwean military commander of the UN peace-keeping force, General Philip Sibanda, confirmed that, with regard to Unita, “we do not have the best troops in quartering areas, we do not have the best weapons, we do not have ammunition or other war stores, explosives, communications equipment.”
Other UN reports say that family members crowding into the camps puts a strain on resources and that large numbers of Unita soldiers leave the camps from time to time.
The ceasefire that emerged from the Lusaka agreement of November 1994 left Unita in control of over half the land area of the country, though sparsely populated, and Unita has continued to control the main diamond-mining areas, which it agreed to withdraw from under the Lusaka accord. Government troops are withdrawing into barracks according to the established timetable.
The first hesitant steps toward unifying the army into a force of 90,000, including 26,000 Unita soldiers, began in early June, amid upbeat predictions from General Matos that the exercise would be completed by the end of July.
This target was set by dos Santos and Savimbi at their summit in Gabon in March, and they also agreed to establish a joint government by July, although usually informed sources in Luanda are pessimistic. They predict that Savirnbi expects to stall until November, when the government’s electoral mandate expires.
In announcing his new government, Prime Minister Van Dunem left open the ministerial portfolios for tourism, geology and mines, health and public works, which are to be filled by Unita under the Lusaka agreement. But dos Santos had previously expressed dissatisfaction over an earlier list of names presented by Unita for consideration in government posts, including seven deputy portfolios.
Africa Analysis, a London-based magazine, says the list presented contained the names of exiled technocrats and party sympathisers instead of Unita leaders. This gave rise to the view that this was a bid to plant his most experienced cadres in government while he forms a viable opposition, which will take advantage of the widespread discontent in the country to gain popularity.
The three-month extension to the deadline for demobilisation of troops, set for 8 May, came and went, with less than satisfactory results necessitating a further two-month extension of the UN mandate until the end of July.
Unita’s lack of commitment to the peace process has been criticized by the international community and some Angolans who feel there is “…need to have Unita moving in the same direction and speed as the government is moving with the implementation of the peace process”.
Unita has expressed concern over what it sees as undue and unfair criticism by major international communities. Unita has named Russia, the US and Portugal (partners to the peace process) as being behind what it terms the government’s offensive against it.
The security situation is tense, with an emergency situation in Luanda at the end of May where riot police had to be brought in to prevent demonstrations, amid fears that the government may be forced to break the ceasefire soon, under threat of a coup from the military.
These widespread fears were made public by the MPLA secretary-general, Lopo do Nascimento, in an interview with the Portuguese weekly, Visao, just before the changes in government were announced.
He said a return to war was unlikely because neither side was in a state of mind to do that. ”What might happen is that continued deterioration in the political, economic and social situation, could prompt intervention by the armed forces who might think they could do things better.”
Nascimento said the country would “touch rock bottom:” unless it set about restructuring its economy and changing the outlook of its citizens.
“Democracy can only exist when it is accompanied by economic and social development. Democracy of the kind which exists in Europe is meaningless here, we have to choose between freedom of expression and food.”
The South African President, Nelson Mandela, cancelled a planned visit to Angola in early June due to the security situation, and to ease pressure on the Angolan government “while they are undergoing a period of transition”, according to his spokesman.
“There is neither war nor peace, because people do not have the ability to move around in their societies,” said one political analyst who feels that there is need to evaluate why previous deadlines were not met before extending again.
At the long awaited meeting between the two leaders in Libreville, Gabon, in March, President dos Santos offered Savimbi a post of vice-president. Despite earlier promises that he would accept the vice presidency if offered, when this was done, Savimbi changed his tune. He said he would accept only if dos Santos resigned as president of his party; the reasoning being that by resigning his post as Unita leader to take up the new post, Savimbi would be serving under dos Santos.
There was, however, agreement that their next meeting would take place in Angola. Both sides are reportedly still buying weapons which does not augur well for any peace process as “insurance policy”.
“We cannot say that the peace process is going smoothly … any peace process is like a long and turbulent river. It is a complex process, you cannot expect anything less after 20 years of war,” said Alioune Blondin Beye, the chief UN negotiator in Angola.” It’s simply a symptom of the mistrust that still exists between the two parties,” says Beye, commenting on the arms procurement.
The Organization of African Unity (OAU) Council of Ministers passed a resolution in late February on the situation in Angola during their sixty-third ordinary session in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia. Among other things, the ministers noted with concern the continued violation of Angolan air space by pirate aircrafts coming from neighbouring countries, notably Zaire. They emphasized the obligation of all countries to respect the UN resolution, alluding to the need to refrain from acts that jeopardise the country’s peace effort and prospects of national reconciliation. (SARDC)
