by Simangaliso Ncube
This is the third in a /our-part series on the forthcoming presidential and parliamentary elections in Tanzania.
Faced with allegations of government corruption and desertion by donors, the election campaigns in Tanzania have been increasingly dominated by promises to revive the economy to levels that match the country’s abundant resources.
All the 13 registered parties are aware that it will take sound economic and social policies to convince the 8 million registered voters to cast votes in the parties’ favour during the country’s first multi-party polls on 29 October this year.
Radio Tanzania recently broadcast a three-and-a-half-hour live debate on economic policy between the four presidential candidates. Benjamin Mkapa of the ruling party, Chama Cha Mapinduzi (CCM), emphasizes self-reliance as the only way to go for the country.
“I stress that the policy of self-reliance takes top priority in the building of our economy, in which self-reliance applies to science and technology in agriculture, livestock management, fisheries, industry and mining among others: says Mkapa.
He points out that there is need to enhance the potential in agriculture through introducing modem ways of farming and allocating more resources to the sector. This will inevitably prompt investment in industries that will process the agricultural output.
The candidate for the leading ol1Position National Convention for Construction and Reform (NCCR) Mageuzi party, former Home Affairs Minister, Augustine Mrema, argued that uprooting corruption and creating a conducive environment for investors will revive the economy.
“How can we enter the 21st century with such a poor economy? We therefore call upon the international community to help us eradicate poverty and we welcome all genuine and honest investors,” emphasized Mrema during the debate.
The other two candidates, Professor Ibrahim Lipumba of the Civic United Front (CUF) and John Cheyo of the United Democratic Party (UDP) are also in agreement that the resources were being misused and this has led to the country being ranked as one of the poorest in the world yet Tanzania has more natural resources in terms of minerals and wildlife parks than Zaire or South Africa.
Tanzania has a potential of being a strong economic base in the Southern African Development
Community (SADC). Like most SADC states, agriculture is the backbone of Tanzania’s economy such that economic growth is mainly determined by the performance of the sector.
However, due to the drought that hit most parts of the region this season, other regional members launched an appeal to the international community for drought relief aid while Tanzania did not join the appeal. This is because Tanzania has a food surplus and the food security situation at national level is projected to remain satisfactory until the next agricultural season.
Statistics in the SADC Food Security Bulletin, August 1995, a newsletter compiled by the Community’s
Regional Early Warning Unit (REWU), indicate that Tanzania produced a cereal surplus of 116 000 tonnes in the 1995196 marketing year.
Tanzania saw a significant 22 percent increase in cereal production this time compared to the 1994/95 season. Emergency relief operations will only continue for people whose crops failed due to floods and inadequate rains as well as to the large numbers of refugees from Burundi and Rwanda. The food vulnerable population is estimated at only 620 000 out of Tanzania’s 27 million people.
Any administration voted into power will have to face the challenge of putting the economy back onto the track that will boost confidence in both local and foreign investors. The administration will also have to correct the trends that forced the International Monetary Fund (IMF) to freeze some US$940 million in aid last year.
At the end of August the IMF sent a delegation led by Goodwill Gondwe, the fund’s deputy director for Africa, on a three-week fact-finding mission in Tanzania. Their recommendations will help determine when to resume suspended aid but this is unlikely to be before the elections. The team has noted some improvements in the running of the economy.
“The government now spends what it earns rather than what it borrows,” says Gondwe. Economic growth fell from 4.1 in 1993 to 3 percent in 1994. Some economists say the country will need considerable foreign aid to revamp its economy to projected levels of 4.4 percent in 1995.
Current economic indicators show that inflation has been falling from 36.1 percent at the end of 1994 to 26 percent in August this year. Imports declined while export earnings increased. About US$1.Z billion will have to be sourced to make ends meet for this fiscal year.
Loopholes in the tax collection system have been tied, although revenue is still 30 percent of what the treasury should receive. Privatization of loss-making parastatals is still lagging. Only 95 of the 371 government corporations have so far been privatized.
Much of the economic achievements have been realized at a great cost lo the social welfare of Tanzanians. Social indicators show that the health delivery system can no longer cope with the population that is growing at an annual average of 3.8 percent. Fonner president, Julius Nyerere complains that the universal primary education (UPE) programme dropped from 100 to 73 percent in the past five years.
For the new administration, the way forward will be to implement strategies that will appeal to the donors for the sake of economic development, and to its own people on the social side of coin. By redressing these negative indicators that have for some time impacted badly on the majority of people, the state can be assured of relative stability. (SARDC)
