By Hopewell Radebe – SANF 04 no 31
The South African electorate has given the African National Congress (ANC) an overwhelming majority to govern not only nationally but also for the first time, in all nine provinces.
Since the advent of democracy ten years ago, the ruling party has narrowly failed to secure sufficient votes to effectively govern two of the country’s nine provinces, the Western Cape in the south and KwaZulu Natal in the east where “free and fair” elections prevailed despite fears of violence.
At national level, political parties in parliament have decreased from 17 to 12. The ANC has increased its power from 65 to 69.7 percent followed by the Democratic Alliance (DA) with 12.4 percent. Inkatha Freedom Party (IFP) was third with 6.97 percent, an almost three percent drop followed by the United Democratic Movement (UDM) which garnered two percent. The Independent Democrats (ID), led by South Africa’s first woman political party leader, Patricia de Lille, got 1.7 percent while the New National Party (NNP) dropped four percent from its 1999 figure.
Although the former liberation movements, the Pan Africanist Congress (PAC) and the Azanian People’s Organisation (AZAPO) improved slightly on their 1999 showing, the two parties have politically failed to present themselves as viable and credible opposition despite their impeccable liberation struggle credentials.
In terms of parliamentary seats out of the 400 seats, the percentages reflect the following: ANC, 279; DA, 50; IFP, 28 seats; UDM, 9; ID, 7; NNP, 7; PAC, 3 and AZAPO, 2 seats.
It is believed that President Thabo Mbeki will not be challenged, and that he will be duly re-elected President for his second and last term. Preparations for the inauguration of the president on 27 April are already underway especially as the event will coincide with the country’s tenth democratic anniversary celebrations.
The country’s best in the music industry, arts, royalty and business have been invited. African Union (AU) leaders, the European Union, the US and countries in Asia are expected to assemble in Pretoria for the inauguration.
Meanwhile, the smaller liberation movement parties are licking their wounds and even planning to initiate talks to cooperate or unite their organisations. PAC president Motsoko Pheko says his organisation and the AZAPO needed to form a united front to “also decolonise the minds of our people (blacks) who continue to support a party that does not care for them.”
He added that the talks were long overdue and that the former liberation parties outside the ruling ANC needed to meet urgently to find a middle road to continue with the struggle for peace and justice.
However, the two parties have been engaged in unity talks since 1988 without success. AZAPO leader, Musibudi Mangena said the revival of the talks should not be based on the results of elections as that would be counter productive.
Rather, the talks with their former liberation partner must be a continuation of negotiations that had a broader aim to form a “viable” alternative government to the ANC. It must be based on “better economic development, job creation and poverty alleviation policies and not emotions,” he said.
While voters have given the ANC a majority vote, the percentage is unfortunately insufficient to help it take over the administration of the Western Cape and KwaZulu Natal provinces.
As a result, the ruling party is technically forced to forge some political coalition agreements with other parties in a bid to build up a 50 plus one percentage power structure to be able to effectively govern these provinces.
This would also mean that some level of trading and compromises are inevitable to enable the ANC to control rather than risk seeing the smaller parties forming a coalition agreement of their own and ousting it. According to the country’s constitution, a coalition government by smaller parties who can constitute above 50 percent power would be legal and can force a bigger party like the ANC to end up being an official opposition at provincial level. For example, in the Western Cape in the 1999 general election, the ANC had managed to reach at least 42 percent of the votes but a coalition government was formed between two mainly white-support-base political parties composed of the former apartheid rulers, the NNP and the then main opposition, the Democratic Party. Together they amassed sufficient votes of over 51 percent and formed a government. Nonetheless, the NNP and DP marriage hit the rocks after two and half years, forcing the two parties who had then merged under the name, Democratic Alliance, to split. The NNP then sought a relationship with the ANC and co-governed the Western Cape for the last two and half years of the last term. Against this background, the ANC has undertaken to discuss a new coalition agreement with the NNP to co-govern the Western Cape while returning to the IFP to forge a third co-governing agreement for KwaZulu Natal. President Mbeki has said this was in keeping with his party’s “spirit of nation building and national reconciliation.”
The two provinces are important to Mbeki who believes they are at core of service delivery along with local government structures. They design and facilitate provincial and local economies while ensuring that communities get opportunities to communicate with and demand delivery from politicians at these two spheres of government whereby their national colleagues formulate policy.
Voters have returned the ANC to power with an increased majority despite criticism about delays in tackling the HIV and AIDS pandemic that has devastated the nation. The ANC promised to distribute anti-retroviral drugs just months before the elections and after civil society took to the streets to demand a positive national plan to fight the disease.
However, the ANC has also been returned because it has had the most successful delivery programme in basic infrastructure, which brought free basic water and electricity to the poor.
Cholera has almost been wiped out due to installation of sanitation facilities in rural areas, free health care for aged, pregnant women and children and welfare grants for pensioners, the disabled and poor children under seven years of age. (SARDC)
