By Munetsi Madakufamba – SANF 04 no 09
Six SADC countries are preparing for elections during the course of the year as the region’s democracy and governance once again come under the spotlight.
Although election dates are not yet confirmed in some of the countries, it is almost certain Botswana, Malawi, Mozambique, Namibia and South Africa will hold either presidential or parliamentary elections between March and December 2004. Lesotho will have its local government elections in November.
South Africa’s third multi-party presidential and parliamentary elections are scheduled for 14 April, during which incumbent President Thabo Mbeki will lead his ruling African National Congress (ANC) in the country’s third multi-racial ballot. While analysts predict a comfortable ANC victory, the challenge for the governing party will be how to maintain the high voter interest shown in the 1994 and 1999 elections that recorded a turnout of 86 percent and 89 percent respectively.
There is no doubt economic fundamentals have responded positively to ANC’s policies during the first 10 years of multi-racial democracy. The rand survived the mysterious plunge of 2002, inflation has been kept under control and the economy is steadily growing. However, challenges remain in the distribution of the national cake, especially among the poor black majority who still yearn to take greater control of the means of production and to play an active role in the country’s vibrant industry and commerce.
HIV and AIDS, a major issue in all countries in southern Africa and one that will likely dominate election campaigns, will for South Africa feature in a different context. Although the issue is unlikely to sway the vote, the controversy that arose when government delayed provision of anti-retroviral drugs to thousands of infected people will once again dominate debate. The basis of the government’s argument was that the cost of anti-retrovirals was too high, the infrastructure to distribute them lacking and that concerns remained about their safety.
However, a new government policy, cautiously welcomed by government critics, has ushered in a roll-out treatment plan for anti-retrovirals in the period 2003-2010.
Land redistribution, job creation, housing and crime prevention are other key issues that ANC cannot ignore if it is to continue enjoying support of the ordinary South Africans.
Malawians have put behind them the third term hype, and are now preparing for the 18 May general elections. This will be the third multi-party poll since 1994 when President Bakili Muluzi’s ruling United Democratic Front (UDF) ended 31 years of one-party rule under the late Hastings Kamuzu Banda, and moved the country into a pluralist system of government.
President Muluzi, who has served his constitutionally-approved two terms, will step down and new party candidate, economist turned diplomat, Bingu wa Mutharika, will face a yet to be named opposition coalition opponent. The Malawian opposition is set to repeat the strategy it used in the 1999 election when the main opposition parties, the Malawi Congress Party (MCP) and the Alliance for Democracy (Aford) fielded one presidential candidate and narrowly lost the race.
However, the situation may be more complicated now, with a plethora of opposition parties, some of which were formed by former ministers of the UDF government while the MCP has suffered a split.
For the ordinary Malawians, the main issues will remain poverty, food security and the HIV and AIDS pandemic. While government has done a fair job in increasing economic opportunities for a country that had suffered heavily under Banda’s autocratic rule, economic growth still falls short of levels needed to halve poverty by the year 2015 as agreed in the UN Millennium Development Goals (MDGs).
In the last quarter of the year, attention will turn to Botswana and its western neighbour Namibia where general elections will likely extend the mandate for the governing parties. President Festus Mogae will lead his ruling Botswana Democratic Party (BDP) into an election where voters are set to reward the current government for its acclaimed economic policies. Botswana, the region’s oldest multi-party democracy, has enjoyed unparalleled peace and prosperity since proclamation of independence from British rule in 1966.
Like BDP, President Sam Nujoma’s ruling South West Africa People’s Organisation (Swapo), which has governed since independence in 1990, looks set to extend its dominance in Namibian politics. Like its east and southern neighbours, Namibia has enjoyed steady economic growth and voters would likely want that to continue.
It will be less hectic but equally important for Lesotho which will have its local government elections in November. The presidential elections won’t be until 2007.
In Mozambique, the ruling Frelimo party will field businessman and veteran politician Armando Guebuza who will face Afonso Dhlakama, his key opponent and leader of the opposition Renamo, in the presidential election scheduled later this year. President Joaquim Chissano will step down this year after 18 years in office.
Presiding over one of the fastest growing economies in the region, Frelimo is almost certain to get another mandate. In 2002, the Mozambican economy grew by an enviable eight percent, which if maintained is sufficient to halve the number of people living in poverty by 2015. (SARDC-SADC Today)
