by Tigere Chagutah – SANF 08 No 37
In southern Africa, the 2007/08 agricultural season is coming to an end with harvesting and movement of produce to markets underway.
Although the planting rains started later than usual, excessive precipitation persisted during December and January throughout the region causing serious flooding in many low-lying areas.
This was particularly the case along the river basins in Mozambique, Zambia, Zimbabwe, Malawi and Madagascar.
Since February the rains have diminished, and unfavourably dry weather has returned to some countries including Zimbabwe, parts of Botswana, southern Malawi, southern Mozambique, eastern Swaziland and central Zambia.
Pockets of moderate food insecurity are projected in areas affected by localised flooding that was followed by the unexpected dry spell between February and March 2008.
Despite these weather vagaries, overall prospects for the sub-region as a whole are considered favourable, marking a recovery from the 2006/7 drought-affected season.
However, significant rises in international prices of fuel and fertilisers have affected the use of key inputs in agriculture, somewhat dampening yield prospects.
Post-harvest assessments conducted by the Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWSNET) in April reveal that a majority of households in most parts of Malawi, United Republic of Tanzania, Zambia, and northern Mozambique will be food secure during this year. But data is still awaited from other SADC countries.
In South Africa, the area put under maize this season is officially estimated at about 3.2 million hectares, a 9.7 percent increase from last year.
South Africa’s National Department of Agriculture’s Crop Estimates Committee estimates output to reach 10.765 million tonnes, a 51.1 percent increase over last year’s harvest.
In Malawi, large input subsidy schemes and favourable rainfall for most parts of the country has contributed to initial preliminary production estimates of maize, rice, and cassava that are higher than the previous five-year average.
Maize production is estimated to reach 3.283 million tonnes, which represents a 50 percent increase against the average, but a five percent decrease from last season.
In Namibia, preliminary forecasts suggest that overall area planted has decreased by 14 percent compared to the 6-year average, mainly because of the delayed onset of rains and localized flooding.
Despite this reduction in area planted, the cereal production forecast stands at 125,000 tonnes, about 5 percent above the 6-year average and 10 percent above last year when production was affected by drought and an erratic rainfall pattern.
