by Egline Tauya – SANF 08 No 68
Weather experts in southern Africa have forecast normal rainfall in major parts of the region for the 2008/09 agricultural season.
The rainfall outlook for southern Africa was prepared by climate scientists from national meteorological and hydrological services within the Southern African Development Community (SADC) region, as well as the SADC Drought Monitoring Centre, and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society.
According to the 12th Southern Africa Regional Climate Outlook Forum (SARCOF-12), which met in South Africa recently, the coming rainfall season has been divided into two parts, October-December 2008 and January-March 2009. The Forum has forecast normal to above normal rainfall in most parts of southern Africa during the first half of the season, October–December.
This covers western coastal South Africa, Namibia, western coastal and northern Angola, the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), greater part of Zambia, much of Zimbabwe, eastern tip of Botswana, north-eastern tip of South Africa, major parts of Mozambique, central and southern part of Malawi, the eastern parts of Tanzania, northern part of Madagascar and Mauritius.
However, parts of Namibia, south-western and extreme north-eastern Zambia, western Zimbabwe, bulk of Botswana, South Africa, Lesotho, Swaziland, northern part of Malawi, greater part of Angola, bulk of Tanzania, and southern half of Madagascar have an increased chance of receiving normal to below-normal rainfall during the same period.
In the second half of the season January to March 2009, most parts of SADC will receive normal to below-normal rainfall.
This covers northern Tanzania; bulk of DRC, northern and central Angola, and Namibia, western flank of Botswana, southern half of South Africa and southern half of Lesotho.
Also forecast to have normal to below-normal rainfall are eastern half of Zimbabwe, central and southern Mozambique, Madagascar and Mauritius.
However, greater parts of the central and eastern half of the region and the western parts of Angola have an increased chance of receiving normal to above-normal rainfall.
In developing the outlook, the scientists took into account principal factors such as the sea-surface temperatures in the Indian, Atlantic and Pacific Oceans.
They noted that the current state of the equatorial Pacific Ocean is in a neutral state and projections point towards the likelihood of neutral El Nino-Southern Oscillation conditions during the next couple of months.
The SARCOF process starts with the pre-SARCOF capacity-building training workshop, which lasts for six weeks, followed by the SARCOF meeting itself and then the SARCOF mid-season correction meeting.
These activities are carried out at the SADC regional level. In addition, workshops are held by national meteorological and hydrological services at country level. The pre-SARCOF capacity-building workshop is intended to strengthen the technical ability of forecasters in seasonal weather forecasting.
The SARCOF forecasts are based on a combination of statistical methods, numerical weather prediction models and expert judgment. The seasonal forecasts generated through the SARCOF process have become an important planning tool for many communities across southern Africa.
Based on the forecasts, decisions are made in user sectors as how to plan activities and practices as well as allocate resources for the coming rainy season.
