by Juakali Kambale – SANF 06 No 97
Ethnicity and the strength of inter-party alliances could emerge as the deciding factors as the Congolese eagerly await the outcome of a presidential run-off held in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) on 29 October.
Although final results are not yet out, indications are that incumbent President Joseph Kabila could take most of the votes in the Eastern DRC while Jean-Pierre Bemba could win in the West of this vast central African country.
Kabila will be counting on support from eastern DRC where he scooped more than 95 percent of votes in the 30 July first round polls. His greatest support base is in the two provinces of North Kivu and South Kivu.
Kabila signed alliance agreements with opposition politicians, Antoine Gizenga and Nzanga Mobutu. Gizenga came third during the first round with 13.6 percent of votes while Mobutu was fourth with about five percent of total votes cast.
These agreements should allow him to get significant votes from western DRC.
Bemba will be banking on support from the other losing presidential candidates following the formation on 23 September of a new political coalition called Union for the Nation (UN).
The UN is an alliance of 15 of the 33 presidential candidates who contested the first round, including the four women candidates.
Bemba is expected to claim the capital city, Kinshasa, western provinces such as his stronghold Equator Province, as well as in Eastern and Western Kasai provinces. The latter are the stronghold of the veteran politician, Etienne Tshisekedi, who has strongly opposed the leadership of Kabila.
Tshisekedi boycotted the first round of the presidential election citing irregularities.
The large numbers of voters that turned up to vote on 29 October in both Eastern and Western Kasai provinces could swing the poll in favour of Bemba.
“It is difficult to clearly establish for whom exactly these people voted but Jean-Pierre Bemba should benefit more from the votes,” according to François Mwamba, the secretary general of Bemba’s Mouvement de Libération du Congo (MLC).
Tshisekedi has said he will not support either candidate.
Kabila won 44.81 percent of the vote on 30 July against 20.03 percent for Bemba.
This necessitated a second round pitting the two front runners after both of them failed to garner the 50-plus-one percent required under the DRC Constitution for one to be declared winner of a presidential poll.
The conduct of the presidential run-off has been described as transparent, free and fair.
Appolinaire Malu Malu, chairperson of DRC’s Independent Electoral Commission, said he was satisfied with the way the polls were organised despite the disturbances and killings that occurred in parts of the country.
