SANF 11 No 8
Southern Africa continues to make a steady recovery from the global financial crisis that affected most of the world since 2008.
Economic forecasts made by most SADC Member States reveal that the regional economy would once again experience a growth in 2011, as key sectors of agriculture, mining and manufacturing begin to recover from the economic downturn.
For example, Angola has predicted that its economy will grow by 7.6 percent this year. Finance Minister Carlos Alberto Lopes cited high price for oil on the international market as a major contributor to the economic growth.
Angola pumps about 1.9 million barrels of oil a day, and last year surpassed Nigeria as the largest oil producer on the continent.
Botswana has forecast an economic growth of about 6.8 percent in 2011 and 7.1 percent the following year.
Finance Minister Kenneth Matambo said the recovery of the mining sector and a stable growth outlook in the rest of the economy made the economic prospect for Botswana look good.
“Diamond sales in 2010 were 33 percent greater than in 2009. We expect improved diamond sales for 2011 and beyond, with recovery of the diamond market to pre-recession levels by 2013,” he said.
He was however, quick to point out that the growth in Botswana’s economy is in the medium to long term still largely dependent on the mining sector, and urged the country to continue with its efforts to diversify into other sectors.
Available data show that those countries that diversified into other sectors were not as badly affected by the global financial crisis, and SADC Member States would benefit more if they also broaden their economic base to ensure long-term sustainability.
Another SADC country that has predicted an economic growth in 2011 is Malawi with predictions set at 6.2 percent.
Last year, the increase was 7.2 percent and Finance Minister Ken Kandodo said the slight decrease is due to a slowdown in manufacturing and telecommunications.
Consecutive bumper yields and a growing manufacturing sector have helped Malawi boost its economy in the last few years.
Mauritius is also expecting an economic growth of more than 4 percent in 2011. The island country depends heavily on tourism, textile and sugar exports, although it also has a burgeoning offshore financial centre and is diversifying into other sectors such as information technology.
This diversification has helped to cushion the impact of tourism as this was one of the worst hit sectors by the economic crisis. Tourism generates about 10 percent of Mauritius’ GDP.
Mozambique has forecast a growth of 7.2 percent this year with Prime Minister Aires Ali saying the growth will be driven by a better agriculture performance.
He said the country intends to raise about US$2.4 billion from exports, an increase of 15 percent.
SADC’s leading economy, South Africa has also made an economic growth forecast of 3.4 percent this year.
The United Republic of Tanzania has said its economy would grow by 7.2 percent this year from an estimated 7.0 percent in 2010.
A latest report by the National Bureau of Statistics cites massive improvement in construction, transport and communication sectors as major contributors to this increase.
An impressive transport and communication performance is attributed to the increase in the volume of goods handled, particularly at its border posts such as the port of Dar es Salaam.
Zambia and Zimbabwe are the other two SADC countries that have also predicted an economic growth in 2011.
Zambia expects a growth of about 6.5 percent on the back of a rally in copper prices and improvements in agriculture.
Mining Minister Maxwell Mwale expects production of copper to rise to 850,000 tonnes this year from just below 750,000 tonnes last year due to the expansion of some of the mines.
Zimbabwean Finance Minister Tendai Biti announced in his 2011 national budget that the country’s economy is expected to grow by 9.3 percent this year.
The economy grew in 2009, for the first in a decade, by 4.7 percent. In 2010 the increase was about 8.1 percent.
Biti cited increased production in the mining and manufacturing sectors, high agricultural output especially the cash crop tobacco, as well as record high prices for gold on the international market as major contributors to this increase.
However, analysts said that economic sanctions imposed on Zimbabwe by the United States and the European Union have significantly derailed the country’s economic turnaround programme.
Based on these economic projections by SADC countries, the region is emerging from the global financial downturn, and the task now is to ensure that this recovery is maintained if sustainable development is to be achieved in the region.
