by Virginia Muwanigwa
Food security prospects in most southern African countries are bright and the strategic reserve requirements may be substantially higher than last year due to good rains since early December.
For the second successive season, the hitherto drought-prone Southern African Development Community (SADC) is set to realise above average harvests.
“Most SADC countries expect cereal harvests which are either equal to or higher than the last season, should favourable rainfall conditions prevail until the end of the season,” says SADC, through its Regional Early Warning Unit.
Revised food security assessments for the current marketing year show that regional cereal availability, assessed at 28.12 million tonnes, is sufficient to cover consumption and strategic reserve requirements at 26.79 million tonnes, leaving an overall cereal output of 1.33 million tonnes.
Although a regional maize surplus is predicted, imports remain necessary to meet consumption needs before the next harvest in most countries except South Africa, Swaziland and Zimbabwe which have surpluses. A total of 639 000 tonnes of maize, or close to 70 percent of total planned imports of 931 000 tonnes, have been received so far.
Increased maize production is also expected in Malawi and Swaziland. Malawi’s overall food supply remains satisfactory as a result of the above-average cereal production in the last marketing year.
Preliminary forecasts put maize output at 2.05 million tonnes, slightly above last year’s above average harvest of 2.04 million tonnes.
Angola has the highest maize import requirements at323 000 tonnes. Out of total pledges of 165 000 tonnes of food aid, 99 000 had been delivered to the target groups of food relief programmes comprising demobilized soldiers and displaced people.
Last year’s deficit in wheat, however, persists despite improved production in South Africa. Namibia and Zimbabwe. Regionally, wheat import requirements for the 1996/97 year total 724 000 tonnes and only South Africa expects domestic surplus.
The region needs to import about 215 000 tonnes of rice, with Botswana accounting for 41 000 of the amount. Other countries have either domestic surpluses or may substitute the expected deficits with other food commodities.
However, the unit’s latest quarterly food security bulletin also says “incessant rains have Jed to flooding, water logging, leaching of the soil nutrients and soil erosion and may adversely affect crop yields”.
The excessive rains necessitated a downward revision in anticipated yields particularly in southern Malawi, central Mozambique as well as in Lesotho, pans of South Africa, southern Zambia and northern Zimbabwe.
In Mozambique, floods in the Pungwe, Buzi and Zambezi valleys, the worst in 20 years, affected 400 000 people resulting in 20 000 fleeing into Malawi and Zambia.
In Sofala and Tete provinces, 173 000 hectares of crops were destroyed. The effect of the floods brought to the fore flaws in the disaster management structures of the country, which were not proactive at the time. The president. Joaquim Chissano, says there is need for restructuring to predict and combat disasters and this would be done through a national plan for disaster management.
In Zimbabwe, some farmers lost their tobacco crop to hailstorms and winds, a situation the Zimbabwe
Tobacco Association described as the worst in years. However, Zimbabwe is expected to increase its tobacco hectarage from over 50 000 to 92 000 hectares.
In Angola. Mozambique and Zambia, input shortages may result in reduced crop yields, while lack of fertilisers and improved seeds will similarly affect Malawi, Tanzania and Zimbabwe. Shortages of draught power or tillage in Botswana. Lesotho, Mozambique, and Zimbabwe also negatively affected crop yields.
Poor rainfall has been reported only in northern Tanzania and central Angola where more than 280 000 people in the Kilimanjaro, Atusha and Tanga regions need emergency food aid due to prolonged drought.
Almost four million people in Tanzania face starvation unless 138 765 tonnes of cereals are distributed, says the country’s president, Benjamin Mkapa. The severely affected regions include Arusha, Mara, Mwanza, Shinyanga and Singida in the north, the Kilimanjaro area and the southwestern province. The Business Times, a Tanzanian daily, reports that the country expects a drop in food production this year and the government has stopped food exports to conserve what is available.
Meanwhile, the Zambia National Farmers Union (ZNFU) projects a drop in maize production totaling 40 percent this season allegedly due to contradictive policies, lack of adequate credit facilities for farmers and an erratic supply of highly priced fertilisers.
The union criticises the government for not being clear on whether it wants agriculture to be private sector driven. “When MMD came into office in 1991, it said it would leave agriculture to the private sector. Now it seems the government doesn’t know whether to pull out or stay in,” says Dr Yusuf Badat, an MMD Member of Parliament. (SARDC)
