by James Mpinga
Not everyone is convinced that global warming is a problem. Many people just don’t believe in it, they see it as a remote and implausible threat blown out of proportion by irresponsible journalism. Others think it’s a good thing (usually those living in cold regions of the globe).
A former president of the US National Academy of Sciences, Dr. Frederick Seitz, says satellite data show insignificant temperature changes in the last 15 years despite high levels of carbon emissions.
“The rise and fall of the earth’s temperature has more to do with the sun’s activity than with emissions from burning fossil fuels,” argues Seitz.
Other scientists go so far as to predict the coming of another Ice Age, not a warming. They base this on conclusions that holes in the ozone layer caused by CFC gases will encourage the growth of glaciers.
Gerald Foley of the Panos Institute in London agrees that the concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere is clearly rising. But while the potential impacts of global warming are immense, “the range of uncertainty in the scientific analysis to date means that it is still impossible to say exactly what the impact, even at a global level, is likely to be, or when it will be felt”. But he argues that taking measures to reduce the threat of global warming — including “no regrets” energy conservation practices – makes good sense environmentally and economically whatever the future holds.
Achoka Awori, Executive Director of the Kenya Energy Non-Governmental Organisations (KENGO), is not convinced of the relevance of global environment and development issues to Africa.
“The only consistent element about these so-called global concerns and crises is that most, if not all, emerge from the North. Africa receives them in carefully prepared information dossiers, scientific studies, seminars and global conferences,” he says.
Like him, many policy-makers in poor countries are worried about today, not global issues which they see as expensive luxury. “Do we stop worrying about availability of drinking water, food, soil depletion and basic energy needs so as to remain pondering about solutions to mirage-like crises that pop up every five years?” Achoka asks.
Cynicism about global climatic change is not unique to developing countries. A US Congressman quipped that global warming and rising sea-levels are “not such a big deal” after all. “We’ll have fish where we now have cattle,” he said.
Skepticism apart, global environment and development issues also suffer from what one North American journalist calls “compassion-fatigue”.
The global agenda is just too full of warnings about tomorrow’s dangers for people to care today, no matter how strong the message may be.
Models of global climate-systems are not certain. They rely on estimates of future greenhouse-gas emissions from future industrialisation and deforestation, which are difficult to predict. Yet the models provide the best estimates we have.
There is no unanimity in the scientific community regarding global warming, the amounts of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, the role of oceans and land systems in absorbing greenhouse gases, the role of cloud cover and rainfall, or the lag between emissions and actual warming. Yet the trend in policy discussions appears to err on the side of caution by taking preventive measures now. (SARDC)
