by Bayano Valy in Arusha – SANF 05 no 88
As Tanzanians prepare to vote on 30 October, political analysts say the opposition is in a state of disarray and is unlikely to give the ruling party any real challenge in the race for presidency.
More than 15 million Tanzanians are eligible to vote for local councillors, parliamentarians and a new president to be picked from an array of 10 candidates. Incumbent President Benjamin Mkapa of the ruling Chama Cha Mapinduzi (CCM) is standing down after serving two terms, the maximum provided for by the country’s constitution.
However, only CCM’s Jakaya Kikwete stands a real chance of winning the presidency.
From the opposition camp, six of the candidates hail from the same region, in the highlands of Mt Kilimanjaro. They are Augustine Mrema of the Tanzania Labour Party, Freemen Mbowe of the Chama Cha Demokrasia na Maendeleo, Henry Kyara of the Saut ya Umma, Sen’gondo Mvungi of the National Convention for Construction and Reform-Mageuzi and Leonard Shayo of Demokrasia Makini. The other candidate is a woman, Anna Senkoro of the Progressive Party of Tanzania-Maendeleo.
The region has some 705,549 eligible voters who apart from voting for a presidential candidate, can elect nine members of parliament.
Although Tanzanians rarely vote along ethnic lines, political analysts say that the fact that six candidates are from the same region is a testimony to the disarray in the opposition camp.
Tanzania has some 120 ethnic groups, but they mainly vote for the candidates they think can best fulfill their hopes. This social cohesiveness is largely credited to the late Mwalimu Julius Nyerere whose policies centred on creating a united Tanzania.
In many other African countries “village elders” would have advised the six to rally behind one candidate.
Analysts view the opposition as having no imagination and only hungry for power. Moreso, only two candidates from the opposition camp — Mrema and Mbowe — are visible on the campaign trail.
Mrema, a former member of parliament for the Kilimanjaro Vunjo constituency, was once a minister of home affairs and deputy prime minister in the days of Ali Hassan Mwinyi’s presidency.
He resigned from Mwinyi’s administration and left the ruling party to join the newly formed opposition camp in the early 1990s.
Mbowe’s campaign has drawn particular attention because he uses a helicopter to criss-cross the country, apparently a novelty in Tanzania.
Mbowe is seen as the greatest threat to Civic United Front leader Ibrahim Lipumba, a Moslem. Lipumba has in the past relied greatly on the Moslem section of the population. However, if he tries to use such tactics, they might backfire given that Kikwete too is a Moslem.
Attempts have been made to get the opposition camp to coalesce around one figure who could at least give Kikwete a fight, but any such notion was quickly abandoned.
“The reason why they’re fielding six candidates is because they are not united,” Hema Bakari, Assistant Permanent Secretary for CCM in the region told SANF.
This works in CCM’s favour, he said, adding that the electorate is mature enough to realise that it is only with CCM that they stand a better future of progress.
If attendance at campaign rallies is anything to go by, then the opposition seem not to have much to offer to Tanzanians. One of the rallies addressed by Mrema in Himo was attended by a crowd of about 50 people.
His speech largely centred on CCM as opposed to what he has to offer if elected into office. He complained about the police allegedly confiscating his campaign material. This unfortunately seems to be the trend among the opposition camp — spending time speaking about CCM and less about their manifestos and policies.
In contrast, Kikwete and his CCM rarely mention the opposition during campaign rallies. Kikwete is capitalising on the achievements of CCM and Tanzania’s former presidents, from which he promises continuity. (SARDC)
