by Bayano Valy in Zanzibar – SANF 05 no 90
National elections in the United Republic of Tanzania have been postponed to 18 December, due to the death of an opposition vice-presidential candidate.
The electoral law makes provision for additional time for nomination and campaigning in the event of the death of a presidential candidate or their running mate.
This caused the postponement of the presidential elections to Sunday, 18 December. The decision to delay all of the polls previously scheduled for 30 October is believed to have been based on the extensive cost of mounting the entire election machinery for two sets of elections within two months in a vast country of almost one million sq km.
Tanzania is holding elections for local councillors and for members of the Union parliament as well as the president. This election involves voters on the mainland and the islands of Zanzibar.
In addition to voting for the Union president and parliament, Zanzibaris will also elect a president, parliament and local councillors for the islands, made up of Unguja and Pemba.
The National Electoral Commission (NEC) had earlier announced the suspension of only the Union presidential elections. They later extended this to the Union parliament and local council elections on the mainland.
However, the NEC would have to secure the agreement of the Zanzibar Electoral Commission (ZEC) for any decision to postpone elections in Zanzibar as these are run by a separate, autonomous structure.
ZEC may be under pressure from the main opposition party and the donors to proceed with the islands’ elections as planned, although this could be divisive to the Union.
Chama Cha Mapinduzi (CCM), currently the government of the Union as well as in Zanzibar, is expected to sweep the Union elections due to the policies of the outgoing president, Benjamin Mkapa, which have seen an economic turnaround with increased growth and low inflation. The election results are more hotly contested in Zanzibar.
The initial announcement was made on the evening of the passing away of Jumbe Mohamed Jumbe, running mate to the Chama Cha Demokrasia na Maendelo (Chadema) presidential candidate, Freeman Mbowe.
Jumbe, who was 65, died in hospital in Dar es Salaam of an unspecified illness on 27 October and following Moslem rites he was buried the same day in the coastal city of Bagamoyo, north of the capital.
The electoral law says that if the presidential candidate or running mate dies the election shall be suspended and the party of the deceased has 21 days to pick another candidate, after which the candidates will have another month to campaign.
There are over 15 million eligible voters who were expected to flock to the polls on Sunday, 30 October. The election campaign has been high profile, and voter turnout was expected to be high. It is still not clear how this postponement will impact on the electorate.
The voter turnout could be lower if the campaign loses momentum. Also, the short rains should start by December, and could provide difficult conditions in some areas.
The Union has 232 constituency seats. A further 75 special seats representing 30 percent have been allocated to women, who are awarded seats on a proportional basis to the number of candidates a party returns.
The elected president nominates a further 10 members. The attorney general and one other nominee representative also take seats in the national parliament, called the Bunge. Five more seats come from the House of Representatives of Zanzibar.
There will be a total of 324 parliamentarians in the new Bunge. The previous parliament had 295 members following the 2000 elections. The increase is due to a constitutional provision that allows for change of number of seats.
Thirteen parties are vying in the current elections but only the ruling CCM, Chademo and the Civic United Front (CUF) are likely to return members.
There are eight presidential candidates of which one is a woman. However, only CCM’s candidate Jakaya Kikwete stands a strong chance of succeeding President Mkapa. Kikwete has served government for 17 years, the last ten years as Minister of Foreign Affairs and International Cooperation.
The postponement means that Mkapa will continue as president until after the elections, leaving office after his 67th birthday on 12 November rather than celebrating his retirement.
Mkapa has continued his hectic schedule crisscrossing the country making a series of valedictory speeches in all regions. On 28 October he was expected on the main island of Unguja in Zanzibar.
Mkapa’s visit to the islands is of a great significance not least because although CCM won comfortably in the islands in 2000, including its presidential candidate, Amani Abeid Karume, analysts are reluctant to predict an outcome this time around.
Zanzibar joined the mainland to form the United Republic of Tanzania on 26 April 1964. The mainland was then known as Tanganyika.
The union was created by the late Baba ya Taifa (Father of the Nation), Mwalimu Julius Nyerere, and Sheikh Abeid Kurame, the father of the Zanzibari incumbent.
Relations between the mainland and islands have been at times difficult more so because some islanders, notably of Arab Omani extraction, believe they would have more power and influence if Zanzibar stayed out of the Union.
A few mainland politicians also resent the special status of the islands, and although they do not advocate leaving the Union, they have campaigned for a separate mainland government within the Union.
CCM will hope to continue its popularity in Unguja and attempt to make inroads in Pemba and wrest control away from political opponents CUF. In 2000, CCM won only five of the 21 constituencies on the northern island of Pemba.
Thus analysts will be looking closely at this year’s poll for the outcome will show which way the political compass is pointing, although Jumbe’s death has ensured that the United Republic of Tanzania will not have a new president and parliament until after 18 December. (SARDC)
