by Patson Phiri – SANF 06 No 104
Improvement of living standards and a smooth transition of political institutions have become the main campaign issues as Madagascar edges closer to D-Day on 3 December.
With 6.3 million Malagasy nationals expected to elect the country’s leader for the next five years, political parties have been jostling to position their candidates for president of the Indian Ocean island.
A total of 14 candidates, including incumbent President Marc Ravalomanana, will contest the eighth presidential polls since Madagascar’s independence in 1965.
These include Elia Ravelomanantsoa, the only female candidate who has chosen to campaign on a “national” ticket.
Other challengers include Pierrot Rajaonarivelo of the Association of the Rebirth of Madagascar (AREMA) party; former speaker of the National Assembly, Jean Lahiniriko; former church minister, Richard Andriamanjato; and Roland Ratsiraka, mayor of the port city of Toamasina and nephew to former president, Didier Ratsiraka. AREMA is the former party of Didier Ratsiraka.
The president is elected by direct popular vote for a five-year term and the country’s electoral system provides for the conduct of a run-off in the event that there is no clear winner from the first round.
Campaigning officially kicked off on 12 November and is due to end on the eve of the poll on 2 December.
Initial campaigning was disrupted by a military coup on 17 November, but the takeover bid was later foiled after other army officers refused to join renegade army officer, General Andrianafidisoa.
The economy is a key campaign issue, with most candidates promising the electorate a better and more prosperous future once they accede to power.
The opposition is using a recent spate of fuel and rice price increases to blame Ravalomanana for hardships faced by the poor.
Inflation has risen from 8.7 percent at the end of 2000 to 30 percent in September.
The incumbent president has since coming to power in 2002, however, managed to stabilise the economy and won the confidence of major multilateral institutions such as the World Bank and International Monetary Fund.
With an economy largely dependent on agriculture – which along with fishing and forestry contributes at least 25 percent of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) – the island also produces coffee, cassava, bananas, maize, sugarcane, potatoes and rice.
Mining and tourism sectors have shown signs of recovery and the government has projected increases in mineral exports from about US$100 million to US$150 million per year over the next 10 years.
The biggest boost to the Malagasy economy has been the discovery of oil which has recently triggered a scramble by international oil conglomerates. Initial projections are that the country could produce 60,000 barrels per day in three to four years. With potential revenue of billions of dollars, this oil boom would make the industry the biggest contributor to GDP.
Ravalomanana came to power following a controversial 2002 presidential poll when his rival, Didier Ratsiraka also claimed victory.
Other candidates – including Ravalomanana – are preaching national reconciliation during the campaign, motivated by a need to avoid the repeat of the 2002 debacle when then president, Didier Ratsiraka, refused to concede defeat to Ravalomananana. The deadlock resulted in the creation of two armies, capital cities and governments.
Ravalomanana urged thousands of supporters who turned out for his first campaign rally on 12 November to keep calm and resist the temptation to react to provocation by rivals.
“Do not react to provocations, it is not worth it,” Ravalomanana told his supporters.
During her rallies, Ravelomanantsoa has called for calm among the electorate to ensure the process was conducive for transparent, free and fair polls.
She has written to other Southern African Development Community (SADC) leaders, the African Union and France urging them to send election observer missions to ensure transparency in the build-up to the polls.
