by Munetsi Madakufamba – SANF 08 No 03
As southern Africa enters its second year of crippling energy shortages as accurately predicted by the Southern African Power Pool about four years ago, massive short-term projects of close to US$8 billion will need to be fast tracked over the next couple of years to get the region out of the present situation.
Electricity shortages have in recent weeks severely affected some Southern African Development Community (SADC) member states leading to scheduled and, in some cases, unscheduled power cuts.
From last year, load shedding has been introduced in countries such as Namibia, South Africa, Zambia and Zimbabwe.
Faced by mounting pressure from industry and domestic consumers, South Africa’s power utility Eskom announced mid-January that it will discontinue electricity exports to neighbouring countries to meet local demand.
The Sunday Independent quoted Andrew Etzinger, Eskom’s chief of demand side management as saying South Africa’s electricity reserves had dropped during the past year from seven percent to minus 17 percent due to a decline in generation performance. Etzinger said it would take at least another seven years before the situation could get back to normal.
“The fact is in this country, for a long time we have had a surplus of electricity at a cheap price – far cheaper than in other industrial nations. So it has made sense for the giant investors, whose plant needs massive amounts of electricity, to invest here,” Etzinger told the South African weekly.
“All that’s happened now is that we have to manage the resource differently. It is simply going to cost investors more – this does not mean that they have to halt their future projects,” he added.
South African industrialists say the power shortages are costing them billions of rands, especially the mines and smelters which consume most of the country’s electricity.
Southern African countries which relied on South Africa for their energy sources have had to turn to other sources in the region. For example, Swaziland which imports 80 percent of its electricity from South Africa is currently in talks with Mozambique.
In a major development for the southern African region, Mozambique recently took over ownership of the giant Cahora Bassa Dam and the hydroelectric power company from former colonial power, Portugal.
SADC member states agreed last year to fast track short-term generation projects, which will add 6,700 megawatts (MW) by 2010 to the regional power grid at a cost of US$7.88 billion.
SAPP, which administers the regional power network, predicted that beginning 2007, the combined power generation reserve capacity in the region would be lower than the peak demand.
In response, SADC member states have initiated a number of short, medium to long term generation projects as well as some rehabilitation projects that will guarantee the region the much needed energy security.
Current installed capacity in the region is 53,000 MW of which dependable capacity is only about 41,000 MW against demand of 42,000 MW.
The region requires a reserve margin of 10 percent if its economies are to operate smoothly.
With some of Africa’s fasted growing economies, SADC’s electricity generation capacity has not increased in tandem with the growth in demand.
Available statistics show that power growth demand in the region has averaged three percent a year over the past decade on the back of economic expansion of around five percent.
With the region having already run out of surplus capacity, SAPP says the problem would likely be overcome by 2010 if planned projects are implemented and commissioned on schedule.
Energy security becomes more pertinent given that the SADC Free Trade Area, which takes effect this year, is set to spur even more growth in the region. SADC would also be seeking to enhance its preparedness ahead of the 2010 Soccer World Cup.
If the current situation is to be brought under control, southern African countries may need to take heed of a famous statement by the visionary Mwalimu Julius Nyerere.
Mwalimu once said of the continent’s development, “Africa needs to run while others walk”. That is perhaps what southern Africa needs to avoid dampening investor confidence generated by the Free Trade Area and the 2010 World Cup.
Power pooling is at the core of regional socio-economic development.
SAPP, which manages the Southern African Energy Grid connecting most of the landlocked SADC member states, has developed a roadmap which seeks to address current challenges.
The SAPP roadmap seeks to boost southern Africa’s electricity generation capacity, with almost 50 short and long term projects underway or planned for future development.
The long term generation projects alone are expected to add 32,000 MW to the regional grid at a cost of US$32 billion.
The plan is to double the region’s generation capacity over the next 20 years through new plants and transmission inter-connectors.
Since 2004, SAPP member utilities have also commissioned rehabilitation projects that have contributed 1,140 MW to the regional grid.
Once implemented, the current short term projects are expected to clear the current 1,000 MW shortfall while creating a regional generation surplus of 5,000 MW or 10 percent by 2013.
The major proposed power plants include the Inga III in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) with a capacity of 3,600 MW, the Kudu Gas Plant in Namibia with a capacity of 800 MW and the Kafue Lower with a capacity of 600 MW.
Notable inter-connectors include the Westcor inter-connector extending from the Inga III in DRC to Angola, Namibia, Botswana and onward to South Africa.
Regional energy cooperation also seeks to facilitate the development of other energy resources such as biomass and biofuels, to augment the power sector capacity.
There is also potential for the region to strengthen self-sufficiency in petroleum and gas resources by undertaking joint regional exploration and development.
