by Caiphas Chimhete
After realising that previous short-term development strategies have met with limited success, some southern African countries have embarked on national long-term perspective studies (NLTPS) to develop a shared vision for the period up to 2020 or beyond.
The shared vision is a long-term foresight for political, cultural and socio-economic development. It involves the consultation of all society stakeholders in what they think should be done to achieve sustainable development. It is felt that a time frame spanning one generation – 25 years – would be adequate to provide a clear picture of the structural transformation needed in any particular country.
“Short-term development programmes are useful … but they cannot provide lasting solutions for recovery, unless they are integrated within a long-term strategic management,” says Ellen Johnson Sirleaf, the Assistant Administrator of the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) and Director of its Regional Bureau for Africa.
So far, five countries in the Southern African Development Community (SADC). — Botswana, Malawi, Swaziland. Zambia and Zimbabwe — have started internal consultations to identify aspirations and hopes, and perceptions of how to achieve them within the chosen time-frame.
In Zambia, the shared vision is called Zambia 2025, while in other countries in the region it is termed Vision 2020. The Visions, Funded and initiated by the UNDP, are coordinated by separate governments in each country.
Sub-Saharan Africa: From Crisis to Sustainable Growth, a book by the World Bank, says for any new long-term strategy to be credible, it should be based on a critical examination of the lessons of the past. Previously, most governments in the region used to have short-term development plans which have proved unsustainable. For example, soon after independence. Zimbabwe embarked on the five-year development plans, whose unsatisfactory results have become subjects of great debate.
Structural Adjustment Programmes (SAPs) introduced in six countries of the region have been criticised for lacking a long-term perspective and for focusing exclusively on economic considerations. Without taking into account social, political, economic and cultural constraints.
The Botswana weekly, Mmegi states: “For Vision 2020 to be successful it must be owned by the people. It must have credibility. For it to have credibility Vision 2020 must be representative of all stakeholders it is intended for”.
In Botswana, President Sir Khetumile Masire appointed a task force responsible for coming up with the country’s own vision 2020. The project has, however, raised eyebrows in some sections of the society claiming that they have been left out in the composition of the task force charged with the responsibility of creating a vision for the country.
Mmegi reports that churches, traditional chiefs, youth, opposition parties, workers’ unions and other members of civil society are not represented on the task force. The omission of these critical sectors of society may undermine the credibility of the vision.
In Zimbabwe, although there seems to have been widespread consultation, Vision 2020 has also attracted criticism. A Member of Parliament, Irene Zindi, is sceptical about the project. “We have heard so many slogans, health and housing for all by the year 2000 and a lot of other policies that have not been implemented … and one wonders where we are heading to.”
However, Zimbabwe Vision 2020 project co-ordinator, Tafadzwa Mushambi, refutes critics who say the government is trying to detract people’s attention from the once popular slogans targeted at the year 2000.
“This project is different because it involves consultation of people and is going to guide leaders and nations into the choices they must make to ensure continued existence of an enabling national environment which will be the main vehicle for getting this nation to the year 2020,” she told the Herald, a Zimbabwean daily.
Mushambi says during the implementation of the project, all short-term and medium plans and the second phase of the economic reforms will continue but their targets would tie in with the objectives of Vision 2020.
In Malawi, the Lilongwe District Development Committee says the project needs political commitment for it to succeed. It says for Vision 2020 to become a reality there must be balanced development where no one portion of the country should be seen to benefit in terms of development projects.
Several countries outside the region have carried out successful NLTPS. Among the notable are Gabon, Cote d’Ivoire, Guinea-Bissau and some South-East Asian countries.
Africa Recovery, a monthly bulletin produced by the United Nations in New York, says South-East Asian countries’ success was based on long-term considerations in designing national development strategies. Their experience has shown that the absence of natural resources is not a barrier to development and their presence does not ensure progress but can be achieved through sustained learning of experiences of other successful countries over a period of time.
For southern Africa, with its abundant natural resources, it should be easier to have reforms that achieve sustainable development. And some feel that after decades of unsatisfactory results from short-term plans, the vision 2020 concepts may just be the answer. (SARDC)
