by Bayano Valy – SANF 05 no 20
There is a worrying picture emerging from central and southern Mozambique regions – there is either below normal rain leading to droughts or above normal resulting in floods.
Some parts of southern Mozambique are already facing the threat of drought. Poor and irregular rainfall may lead to a poor harvest, especially of the maize crop.
Mozambican authorities have already sounded the alarm.
“If this situation does not change, the crops planted in November will not yield good results. We’re worried because we’re approaching the end of the rainy season and the expected improvements are not happening,” said Mário Ubisse of the Early Warning System department in the Agriculture Ministry.
So far this is affecting some districts in Inhambane province where signs of drought are particularly obvious in that the maize harvest is everything but lost. This is a heavy blow to peasants because the maize was already at the critical stage of tasselling.
But this scenario conflicts with central and northen Mozambique where above normal rainfall has caused floods in some areas, specifically in the Zambezi valley.
Reports point out that the Zambezi burst its banks and flooded the valley, forcing people living along it to flee to higher and safer ground. There are concerns that water-logging will cause crops planted in low-lying areas to go to waste.
Farmers have been advised to plant in the higher and safer ground. Due to past experiences, peasants living along river banks normally keep two fields – one in low-lying areas and another in higher ground – and when the floods come, they resort to yields from higher ground fields.
This seems to be the scenario metereologists had forecast in the last quarter of 2004. At a meeting in the Zimbabwean capital, Harare, the Southern Africa Regional Climate Outlook Forum (SARCOF) predicted normal to above normal rainfall, with the exception of parts of Zimbabwe, Botswana, central Mozambique, South Africa, eastern Tanzania and Mauritius.
SARCOF also predicted low rainfall in January to March 2005 in the maize production belt of eastern Tanzania, Mozambique, South Africa and Zimbabwe. This is what is being experienced in southern Mozambique.
This means that the ensuing poor harvests will have a negative impact in southern Africa, where already some parts are facing food shortages.
Mozambique is already prepared for this. Ubisse said that the Ministry of Agriculture has drawn plans to organise seed fairs in the districts affected either by drought or floods to enable peasants to use them for the second planting season.
The impacts of drought in southern Africa are usually consistent with the north-south pattern of the El Ninõ events. For example, during the 1994-95 season three countries (Botswana, Malawi and Mozambique) produced more cereals than averages recorded over the previous five-years, while Lesotho, Namibia, South Africa, Swaziland, Zambia and Zimbabwe produced far less than their requirements.
During the same season, the north-south pattern of the El Ninõ phenomenon was emphatic in Mozambique where the southern part of the country was drought stricken, while the northern part was not and even had a grain surplus.
When El Ninõ struck the region in 2000, it left a devastating trail of severe drought in much of southern Africa – the region took years to recover. (SARDC)
