By Tendai Msengezi
The one-year-old government of President Frederick Chiluba in Zambia is grappling with a new and potentially explosive situation – that of a crisis of expectation.
After winning a landslide victory in general elections late last year, the government formed by the Movement for Multi-Party Democracy (MMD) has removed food subsidies, further devalued the kwacha and opened trade links with South Africa. It has also produced a package of incentives designed to stimulate the private sector, which the former trade unionist strongly feels is integral for the country’s recovery drive.
“I am struggling very hard, but with a lot of determination, to tum things around,” said President Chiluba when he visited the United States in February. He concedes, however, that the reforms currently underway will result in a lot of initial hardships.
A 23 percent devaluation of the kwacha, privatization plans and the decision to cut maize meal subsidies by 90 percent has raised the cost of living and hit job prospects. The current drought, which has ravaged all the countries in the region, has further compounded the government’s problems.
Finance minister, Emmanuel Kasonde, is on record warning that the price hikes of the staple food, maize meal arc to 0 prepare” consumers for further increases which are inevitable as imported grain arrives in the country.
Nearly two-thirds of Zambia’s maize harvest was scorched in January, yet donors came up with only US$65 million of the $US300 million Zambia asked for. Agriculture Minister Guy Scott says they were given too short a notice to find more.
Political analysts feel that the legitimacy given to the government by last year’s election victory has allowed it to push forward the harsh economic measures without provoking the riots that plagued the former government.
The president and some cabinet ministers have attempted to promote their policy of “open government” by touring the country to explain to voters the reasons behind the harsh economic reforms.
Despite being in a fairly unassailable political position, Chiluba has to fulfil his promises if he is to avoid the same electoral fate as his predecessor.
“There has to be social trade-offs in improved education and health care to compensate for the economic reforms,” said Chiluba in one interview, and he says donors must play a large part in helping to pay for these.
Zambia’s debt, which runs to US$7, 5 billion, has dealt a crippling blow to the country’s recovery efforts and the situation in the country will not improve significantly unless there is debt relief.
There has been some response from the donors. They have pledged over US$400 million to begin to meet Zambia’s US$1.4 billion financing gap for 1992 at a 23-24 March meeting in Paris.
This, however, has not appeased the people at home. Already, there is grumbling in certain quarters of the population. Owen Sichone, a lecturer at the University of Zambia and Chairman of the Social Democratic Party–the most vocal of the small opposition parties–is pessimistic: “To offer starving people relief in a year’s time sounds rather sadistic,” he says.
The opposition feels that the MMD government has responded to the economic crisis in the same way that Unip did, “bombarding us with propaganda, with claims of falling inflation, crocodile tears at the plight of peasants and promises of light at the end of the year-long tunnel.”
Some unionized workers have also lost patience. Workers in banks, factories, universities, the national airline, the national railway, and local government councils have gone on strike demanding more money.
However, the most telling blow for the MMD government was the embarrassing loss of the Eastern Province parliamentary scat to Unip in mid-August. What made the defeat bitterer was that the MMD candidate lost to Panji Kaunda, the oldest son of the former President, Kenneth Kaunda.
“Although the Eastern Province is a stronghold of Unip, the defeat was a major setback for Chiluba. In the eyes of many people, the loss creates the impression that the MMD’s support is waning, especially if the opposition is a member of the Kaunda family,” said one observer.
In its first few months in power, the MMD government has also been plagued by internal strife. Amidst allegations of corruption, Chiluba had to dismiss two cabinet ministers and two others resigned accusing the government of corruption. Of the ministers who were fired, one was the Minister of Information and Broadcasting, a white of Yugoslav origin (Stan Kristafor) accused of racist remarks. The other was the Minister of Works and Supplies, Ephraim Chibwe, Chiluba’s uncle, who, amongst other things is implicated in awarding a contract to renovate State House to his o”-n company.
Akashambatwa Lewanika, Minister of Science, Technology and Vocational training and a founder member of the MMD resigned accusing the government of condoning “the misdirection of public offices and resources to private concerns.” Youth and Sport minister, Baldwin Nkumbula, sighted the same reasons for his resignation.
The question now being asked is, what next? The government finds itself caught between a rock and a hard place. External actors insists on certain economic policies and deadlines as well as a more open political system before they release their funds. On the other hand, there is the heightened social protest that often characterizes harsh economic restructuring programmes such as that taking place in Zambia.
It is hard to escape the conclusion that, in the attempt to strike a balance between political democratization and economic liberalization, more tough times lie ahead for Zambia. (SARDC)
