by David Martin
The loss of a single seat bringing to three the tiny number now occupied by the opposition in Zimbabwe’s Parliament may, at first sight, not appear terribly traumatic.
After all, Robert Mugabe’s Zimbabwe African National Union-Patriotic Front (ZANU-PF) party still holds 117 of the 120 elected seats in the parliament, the same number it has held since 1990 and, barring unexpected by-election turnarounds, the number it will hold until the Year 2000.
Bui, in recent weeks, there have been indications that the seemingly impregnable fortress of ZANU (PF) political control over the country is showing early signs of hairline fractures.
The first real electoral indicator that there was growing discontent in the ranks came in the recent Municipal elections.
In Mutare, the country’s third biggest city, an “independent”, almost certainly supported by two ZANU (PF) Cabinet Ministers, won the race for Mayor, defeating the official ZANU (PF) candidate. In the fourth biggest town, Masvingo, two “independents”, again supported by some Ministers, now determine which of the opposing ZANU (PF) factions has a majority.
Elsewhere, across the country, particularly in the urban areas, a string of “independents” defeated ZANU (PF)-backed candidates.
In one Harare ward, in the Municipal elections, local ZANU (Pf) branch chairmen and office bearers joined forces to support the “independent” against the official ZANU (PF) candidate. The candidate, they argued, only won the primaries because she was the girlfriend of a party “chef” and the independent was more competent ·• and as loyal to ZANU (PF) as they were. The independent easily won the election.
In fact, it now transpires, the ZANU (PF) Political Bureau was initially unaware that the woman candidate was opposed in the primaries. Of the four party “watchdogs” informing the hierarchy, one was an uncle, another a half-sister and a third the supposed boyfriend.
Now, a ZANU (PF) Member of Parliament (MP) in the former Assembly, Margaret Dongo, has, after the High Court over-turned the election early this year, soundly defeated the ZANU (PF)·backed candidate.
Mrs Dongo, who stood as an “independent” in the re-run election, joins the only two other Members on the Opposition bench, Reverend Ndabaningi Sithole and ano1her member of his ZANU (Ndonga) party.
The two ZANU (Ndonga) MPs had been dismissed by the ruling party as representatives of a tribal enclave, the Ndau area of eas1em Zimbabwe around Chipinge, which borders on Mozambique.
Mrs Dongo comes from the same area. But she cannot be simply dismissed as a representative of a tribal enclave as she won in the capital. Harare, where since independence in 1980 ZANU (PF) has dominated.
It is true that the rumour of voters who returned her was abysmally low. Only 18 percent of registered voters cast their ballots. But she won by a vote or almost two to one and there is no evidence to support the argument that had the turn-out been greater she would have lost. Her victory appears to be symptomatic of a much deeper malaise within the leadership of ZANU (PF).
They spearheaded the decade-long liberation war against Tan Smith and his minority regime. They have been elected and re-elected, virtually unchallenged, in four successive elections. They have grown accustomed 10 power and it shows.
For the Parliamentary elections earlier this year, ZANU (PF) introduced primaries. These, supposedly, would allow the grassroots voters to participate in choosing the candidates.
In several areas, the primaries were a charade, with some elected candidates winning their nominations more through chicanery, intimidation and cheque-books rather than the due democratic process.
Anyone who seriously followed those primaries, and many Zimbabweans did, recognised the extent of electoral fraud and the fact that the “winner” in the primaries, who may not have really won at all, was virtually certain of a seat in parliament. Thus, the real fight occurred in the primaries, not in the general elections.
Disgruntled losers in the primaries, some with genuine grievances, stood as “independents” against victorious ZANU (PF) candidates. They were promptly expelled from the party for indiscipline.
Mrs Dongo, defeated in the primaries as an incumbent MP, lost as an “independent” in the general election. But her determination in forcing a re-run and her victory will certainly encourage others in the future into believing that ZANU (Pf} is no longer impregnable.
Just how “independent” she and the other “independents” prove to be remains to be seen. Most of them are, in reality, ZANU (PF} at heart. But, if the ruling party continues to politically shun them they may be forced to seek sanctuary elsewhere. By electing “independents” the electorate are sending a clear message to ZANU (PF), that they will not accept the imposition of candidates by the “chefs”, as the party’s leaders are known.
There are signs that the party “chefs” are themselves becoming alarmed by the signals. A mission of four members of the hierarchy has been appointed 10 study and report on the situation in the eastern province of Manicaland which elected the two previous Opposition MPs and the “independent Mayor of Mutare”.
But unless they address the fundamental grievances al the grassroots, which is how people are chosen in the primaries, their mission will be doomed to the same failure as one sent some months ago to another province, Masvingo, in the south of the country, to try to heal the schisms within the party ranks.
It is still far too early to speak of a ZANU (PF) electoral defeat, particularly given the ineptitude of the political leaders and parties who seek to challenge them.
But, the degree of complacency and the doctrinaire behaviour of the old guard in expelling people with genuine grievances rather than re-dressing the grievances, suggests at least some of the leadership· has lost touch with its once secure base. (SARDC
