{"id":11223,"date":"2026-09-02T10:00:58","date_gmt":"2026-09-02T10:00:58","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/sardc.net\/en\/?p=11223"},"modified":"2026-09-04T08:19:34","modified_gmt":"2026-09-04T08:19:34","slug":"southern-africa-prepares-for-super-el-nino-as-erratic-rainfall-looms","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/sardc.net\/en\/southern-african-news-features\/southern-africa-prepares-for-super-el-nino-as-erratic-rainfall-looms\/","title":{"rendered":"Southern Africa prepares for Super El Ni\u00f1o as erratic rainfall looms"},"content":{"rendered":"

SANF 26 no 9 September<\/em><\/b> by Neto Nengomasha<\/p>\n

Southern Africa is facing another season of erratic, mostly below\u2011normal rainfall in 2026\/27, a forecast that threatens to deepen the region\u2019s food and electricity security challenges.<\/p>\n

The outlook, released by the 33rd Southern African Regional Climate Outlook Forum (SARCOF) held in Swakopmund, Namibia from 25-28 August, shows that most parts of the region are likely to receive insufficient rainfall between October 2026 and March 2027 \u2013 the critical window for the main agricultural season.<\/p>\n

Below\u2011normal rainfall during the October-December period is expected across much of southern Africa, undermining planting prospects for staple crops such as maize. <\/p>\n

However, normal to above-normal rainfall is expected over most of the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), northwestern Angola, northern Zambia, central Malawi, northern Mozambique, the southern fringes of the United Republic of Tanzania and Comoros during the same period. <\/p>\n

There are, however, some areas that are likely to receive above-normal rainfall during the same period and these include eastern DRC, the remainder of Tanzania, extreme northern Malawi, extreme northern Zambia and Seychelles, while normal to below-normal rainfall is expected over the southwestern coastal part of South Africa, western and southwestern Madagascar and Mauritius.<\/p>\n

\u201cBelow\u2011normal rainfall\u201d refers to precipitation levels that fall short of the historical average for a given country or region. Vice versa for a \u201cabove-normal rainfall\u201d forecast.<\/p>\n

A forecast of \u201cnormal to below\u2011normal rainfall\u201d indicates that rainfall is expected to be within the average range or slightly below it, suggesting drier\u2011than\u2011usual conditions are more likely.
\nConversely, a forecast of \u201cnormal to above\u2011normal rainfall\u201d signals that precipitation is expected to be average or higher than the long\u2011term norm, pointing to wetter conditions.<\/p>\n

According to the SARCOF forecast, below-normal rainfall is expected over most of the central and southern parts of the region during the second half of the season (January to March 2027), particularly Angola, Namibia, Botswana, Zimbabwe, Zambia and parts of South Africa.<\/p>\n

Normal to below-normal rainfall is expected over parts of southern Mozambique, northern South Africa, Eswatini, Lesotho and Madagascar.<\/p>\n

In contrast, normal to above-normal rainfall is expected over the region’s north, including the DRC, northern Zambia, northern Malawi, northern Mozambique, parts of Tanzania and Seychelles, with above-normal rainfall particularly likely over eastern Tanzania and Comoros.<\/p>\n

While pockets of normal to above\u2011normal rainfall are predicted over most of the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), northwestern Angola, northern Zambia, central Malawi, northern Mozambique, the southern fringes of the United Republic of Tanzania and Comoros, the bulk of the region \u2013 including Angola, Botswana, Namibia, South Africa and Zimbabwe \u2013 faces heightened drought risk in the second half of the season.<\/p>\n

For farmers, the forecast, therefore, signals another difficult year. National meteorological\/hydrological services departments are expected to provide more localised information to guide farmers on how to go about preparations for the coming season.<\/p>\n

Erratic rainfall patterns also carry implications for hydropower generation, which supplies a significant share of electricity in countries such as Zambia, Zimbabwe and Mozambique. <\/p>\n

Reduced inflows into major dams could further strain already fragile power grids, compounding the region\u2019s energy crisis. <\/p>\n

The forecast of above\u2011average temperatures across most of southern Africa between October and January adds to the stress, increasing evaporation rates and reducing water availability.<\/p>\n

Climate experts attribute the anticipated conditions to a strengthening El Ni\u00f1o in the tropical Pacific, expected to reach strong to very strong intensity during the October\u2013December period. <\/p>\n

El Ni\u00f1o is part of a broader phenomenon known as the El Ni\u00f1o Southern Oscillation (ENSO), which the Southern Africa Environment Outlook reports note is linked to climate anomalies across the global tropics and sub-tropics. <\/p>\n

ENSO alternates between El Ni\u00f1o and La Ni\u00f1a phases, associated respectively with warmer and cooler sea-surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific. El Ni\u00f1o episodes typically bring drought to most of southern Africa, while La Ni\u00f1a conditions often bring heavy rainfall to the region.<\/p>\n

The prediction of a strong El Ni\u00f1o event for 2026\/27 comes as southern Africa continues to recover from previous El Ni\u00f1o-induced droughts linked to climate change and variability. <\/p>\n

Research shows that before the 1980s, strong El Ni\u00f1o events occurred roughly every 10 to 20 years, but droughts linked to El Ni\u00f1o have intensified over the past four decades, with notable events in 1982\/83, 1991\/92, 1994\/95, 1997\/98 and 2001-2003. The 2015\/16 El Ni\u00f1o drought is considered the worst in 50 years, more severe than the 1997 cycle.<\/p>\n

The region is taking measures to respond to the anticipated Super El Ni\u00f1o event. At their 46th Ordinary Summit held in South Africa in August, Southern African Development Community (SADC) leaders underscored the need to strengthen preparedness through early warning systems, drought\u2011resilient agriculture, irrigation development and adoption of drought\u2011tolerant crop varieties. <\/p>\n

Agriculture in southern Africa remains heavily dependent on rain\u2011fed production, leaving millions of smallholder farmers vulnerable to climate variability and recurrent droughts. <\/p>\n

In response, the region is accelerating the rollout of climate\u2011smart and productivity\u2011enhancing interventions under the SADC Regional Agricultural Policy (RAP). <\/p>\n

Adopted in 2014, the RAP provides a framework for harmonising agricultural development across member states, with a focus on food security, sustainable natural resource management and resilience to climate change. <\/p>\n

Current measures include promoting irrigation development, scaling up drought\u2011tolerant crop varieties, strengthening early warning systems, and improving access to regional markets. <\/p>\n

By embedding climate\u2011smart practices within the RAP, SADC aims to reduce the risks associated with erratic rainfall patterns and ensure that agriculture continues to drive livelihoods, trade and economic growth across the region.<\/p>\n

Efforts are being made to strengthen the SADC Humanitarian and Emergency Operations Centre, established in Mozambique in 2021 to coordinate regional disaster risk preparedness and response. <\/p>\n

In addition, SADC member states are working towards strengthening regional energy integration through the Southern African Power Pool (SAPP) to reduce vulnerability to energy shocks.
\nSAPP was established by SADC in 1995 as a regional organisation to coordinate cooperation among member states. From its headquarters in Harare, Zimbabwe, the power pool is responsible, among
\nother things, for the coordinating electricity trade between member utilities with excess generation capacity and those facing deficits.<\/p>\n

It also coordinates development of power interconnector projects linking member states in mainland SADC. sardc.net<\/b><\/p>\n

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Southern African News Features offers a reliable source of regional information and analysis on the Southern African Development Community, and is provided as a service to the SADC region. <\/strong><\/p>\r\n

This article may be reproduced with credit to the author and publisher.<\/strong><\/p>\r\n<\/span>\r\n\r\n

SANF is produced by the Southern African Research and Documentation Centre (SARDC), which has monitored regional developments since 1985.      Email: <\/em>sanf@sardc.net<\/em><\/strong>      <\/em><\/p>\r\n

Website and Virtual Library for Southern Africa<\/em>     <\/em>www.sardc.net<\/em><\/strong><\/a>  <\/em>Knowledge for Development<\/em><\/p><\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

SANF 26 no 9 September by Neto Nengomasha Southern Africa is facing another season of erratic, mostly below\u2011normal rainfall in 2026\/27, a forecast that threatens to deepen the region\u2019s food and electricity security challenges. The outlook, released by the 33rd Southern African Regional Climate Outlook Forum (SARCOF) held in Swakopmund, Namibia from 25-28 August, shows […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":7,"featured_media":4649,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"advanced_seo_description":"","jetpack_seo_html_title":"","jetpack_seo_noindex":false,"jetpack_seo_schema_type":"","_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[50,17,6],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-11223","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-featured","category-news-announcements","category-southern-african-news-features"],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/sardc.net\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/sanf-.jpg?fit=210%2C210&ssl=1","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/p4h5b0-2V1","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/sardc.net\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/11223","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/sardc.net\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/sardc.net\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sardc.net\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/7"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sardc.net\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=11223"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/sardc.net\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/11223\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":11232,"href":"https:\/\/sardc.net\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/11223\/revisions\/11232"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sardc.net\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/4649"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/sardc.net\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=11223"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sardc.net\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=11223"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sardc.net\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=11223"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}