SANF 26 no 4 May by Joseph Ngwawi
When Southern Africa’s foreign ministers gathered in the quiet bushveld of the Kruger National Park in late May 2026, the setting could not have contrasted more sharply with the turbulence shaping the world beyond the park’s boundaries.
Yet it was precisely this global turbulence — geopolitical rivalry, fractured supply chains, rising food and fuel prices, and the scramble for Africa’s minerals — that had brought the Southern African Development Community (SADC) to Skukuza in South Africa for a ministerial retreat.
The message from the three‑day meeting, held from 22-24 May, was clear: the region is repositioning itself for a world in transition, one where old certainties have collapsed and new power centres are emerging.
Since 2020, the world has been hit by overlapping shocks: the COVID‑19 pandemic, the war in Ukraine, the Middle East conflict and the accelerating rivalry between the United States and China.
These crises have disrupted global shipping routes, driven up commodity prices and exposed the fragility of supply chains that African economies depend on.
The return of Donald Trump to the White House in 2025 deepened the uncertainty. His administration’s “America First” doctrine has reshaped US engagement with Africa, shifting from development partnerships to transactional deals tied to strategic resources, data access and geopolitical alignment.
Long‑standing programmes such as the US President’s Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief (PEPFAR) have been reduced and aid has increasingly been linked to conditions that many African governments view as intrusive or sovereignty‑eroding.
Launched in 2003 to support HIV prevention, care and treatment worldwide, PEPFAR had until 2025 been the largest single commitment by any country towards the fight against HIV and AIDS, distributing more than US$100 billion to over 50 countries in two decades.
The consequences of the cuts in funding have been felt across the SADC region.
The latest Middle East conflict involving the US, Israel against Iran has equally exposed the vulnerability of developing regions such as SADC to the vagaries of an unpredictable geopolitical environment.
The accompanying disruption of maritime routes through the Red Sea pushed up shipping costs and delayed imports of fuel, fertiliser and grain, resulting in inflationary pressures, currency volatility and rising food prices.
Ministers at the retreat noted that these shocks have intensified food and energy insecurity across the region.
SADC Council of Ministers chairperson Ronald Lamola captured the moment with a reference to Italian writer Antonio Gramsci, noting that it was time for southern Africa to position itself for a new world order because the old one is dying.
“The international system is undergoing profound transformation as it transitions towards a more multipolar order, marked by intensified geopolitical competition, economic fragmentation, technological rivalry and growing uncertainty surrounding global peace, security and development cooperation,” Lamola said.
He noted that unlike previous eras dominated by a single or bipolar power structure, “today’s geopolitical landscape is characterised by multiple centres of power competing across economic, political, technological and strategic domains.”
“The tensions arising from this power shift are increasingly disrupting global supply chains, reshaping investment flows, intensifying territorial and resource competition and weakening multilateral cooperation.”
The question facing SADC, he said, was whether the region would shape this new world — or be shaped by it.
Nowhere is the new geopolitical contest more visible than in the race for Africa’s critical minerals.
Southern Africa holds some of the world’s largest reserves of cobalt, copper, lithium, nickel and rare earths — the minerals that power electric vehicles, solar panels and battery storage systems.
But the region’s mineral wealth has also made it a battleground for global powers seeking to secure supply chains for the green energy transition.
Zambia’s recent confrontation with the United States has become a cautionary tale.
What began as a diplomatic farewell speech by outgoing US ambassador Michael Gonzales escalated into a public dispute over a proposed US$2 billion health package and a minerals‑for‑aid framework.
Washington’s conditions — including priority access for American companies to Zambia’s copper, cobalt and lithium, and a decade of access to Zambian health and genetic data — triggered outrage in Lusaka.
The Zambian government rejected the terms, saying they undermined sovereignty and linked unrelated sectors in ways that compromised national interests.
The dispute exposed the leverage donors can exert when essential social funding is tied to strategic resource concessions.
It also highlighted the risks that SADC Executive Secretary Elias Magosi warned about: external financing arrangements increasingly tied to access to strategic resources, potentially constraining long‑term policy flexibility.
“We must strengthen domestic resource mobilisation and improve coordination on external financing and debt management,” he said.
For SADC, the Zambia-US standoff is more than a bilateral dispute. It is a sign of the geopolitical pressures the entire region must now navigate.
Despite the vulnerabilities exposed by recent shocks, Magosi reminded the ministers that southern Africa is not entering this new era empty‑handed. It is entering it as one of the most strategically endowed regions on the planet.
“We possess vast reserves of oil and gas, abundant renewable energy resources, critical minerals central to the global energy transition, extensive agricultural potential and strategic transport corridors linking regional and global markets,” he said.
Few regions, he said, possess such a combination of resources, geographic positioning and market potential.
But these assets will only translate into development gains if SADC strengthens its internal systems.
Magosi outlined several measures the region must prioritise. He called for investment in transport and logistics infrastructure, noting that efficient ports, railways, roads and border systems will go a long way in reducing transaction costs and improving the competitiveness of the region.
He called for strengthened regional energy integration through the Southern African Power Pool (SAPP) to reduce vulnerability to external energy shocks.
SAPP was established by SADC in 1995 as a regional organisation to coordinate cooperation among member states. From its headquarters in Harare, Zimbabwe, the power pool is responsible, among other things, for the coordinating electricity trade between member utilities with excess generation capacity and those facing deficits.
It also coordinates development of power interconnector projects linking member states in mainland SADC.
Magosi urged coordinated debt management by the region to prevent individual countries from being pressured into unfavourable deals.
These proposals reflect a broader shift in SADC’s thinking: from crisis management to long‑term resilience building.
As the ministers noted, the global disorder not only presents risks but also opportunities. The rise of multiple power centres — China, India, the Gulf states, the European Union and a more transactional United States — has created space for African regions to exercise greater agency.
But only if they act collectively.
“Ministers reaffirmed their shared commitment to strengthening regional solidarity, enhancing policy coherence, strengthening regional institutions and deepening cooperation in order to build a more resilient, self-sustaining and competitive SADC region, and agreed that the outcomes of the retreat should serve as a practical roadmap for accelerated implementation, enhanced accountability and strengthened regional coordination,” read the ministerial retreat outcome statement.
The ministers committed to a practical roadmap covering industrialisation, value chains, trade, energy, agriculture, migration and the free movement of people and goods.
Migration, in particular, has become a politically sensitive issue, with protests in South Africa targeting foreign nationals.
Lamola stressed that migration is not a threat but a development asset when properly managed and called for honest regional discussions on the drivers of irregular migration and the principle of burden sharing.
The retreat concluded with a renewed commitment to SADC Vision 2050, which imagines a region defined by economic well‑being, social justice and peace.
However, achieving that vision will require navigating a world where trade, technology, finance and minerals are increasingly instruments of geopolitical competition.
As Carlos Lopes, the African development economist quoted by Lamola, put it: “The rules will be rewritten. The only question is: will Africa be one of the authors?”
For SADC, the answer depends on whether the region can turn its strategic endowments into strategic leverage; and whether it can act not as 16 individual states but as a unified bloc in a world where power is shifting, fast. sardc.net